howmanylives.eu

How many died while TCMV deliberated?

NL approved Tesla FSD on 10 April 2026. It is now live in five EU countries, but TCMV still hasn't harmonised it EU-wide. The counter shows the net toll — after crediting measured use in those five countries.

Deaths from the delay
0
–/yr–/day
Range: –
Injuries from the delay
0
–/yr–/day
Range: –

Since NL approval · – days of TCMV delay · Blocked EU-wide (net of patchwork)

If EU-wide on all FSD Teslas–/yr
Already saved (5-country patchwork)–/yr
From the delay (net)–/yr
Per yearDeathsInjuries
TCMV's patchwork>70k customers · >1m FSD km/day – –
Blocked EU-wideall FSD-capable Teslas – –
Whole fleet fantasyevery car is FSD – –

The 5-country patchwork is real — people are being saved there (green). Blocked EU-wide shows what's still on the table: the net toll after crediting those savings. Even that number is only a few dozen per year — Teslas are ~0.5% of the fleet. The scary figures only appear in the whole-fleet fantasy.

Approved markets
5 EU
NL · DK · BE · EE · LT.
Customers
>70k
Using FSD Supervised.
Live EU use
>1m km
Per day on public roads.
Tesla's EU figure
4.1×
Less likely to crash vs manual driving.
EU deaths /yr
~19,400
2025 preliminary · ~53/day.
New EU customer data, 1 Sep 2026: Tesla reports more than 100 million km on public EU roads. Its latest five-month cut covers more than 102 million km and says FSD was more than 4.1× less likely to crash than manual driving in the five approved countries. A possible EU-wide vote could take place on 6 October 2026.

Safety evidence in Tesla's thread

Supporting tests and telemetry cited alongside the new EU customer-fleet result.

Major crashes
−40–69%
Vs manual Tesla driving: motorway −45%, arterial −69%, urban −50%, local −40% · ~3bn km, 2025.
AEB activations
up to −84%
Fewer automatic emergency-braking events.
Harsh braking
up to −81%
Fewer hard-braking events.
Lane-change bumps
−99% / −93%
Motorway / non-motorway · 377m manoeuvres.
Fatigue events
−67%
During motorway driving.
Traffic speed
98%
At or below surrounding traffic speed.
EU engineering fleet
1.6m km
Zero at-fault major or minor collisions.
Scenario tests
>230k
~98% pass rate across countries, rain, fog, day and night.

Scope matters: the dashboard was assembled before the April 2026 customer rollout and mixes North American fleet telemetry with European engineering and route tests. These figures are Tesla-reported, use different denominators and baselines, and should not be combined into one rate.

Assumptions

Change any input — the link updates so you can share your settings.

For "Blocked EU-wide". Patchwork uses the observed >1m FSD km/day instead.
Not everyone buys the option/subscription.
Even when available, not 100% of the time.
km/year.
4.1× is Tesla's collision result, not a fatality result. Road-class reductions range from 40% to 69%.
Whole-fleet scenario only. Crashes a car system could plausibly affect.
Attributing deaths/injuries per km:

The math

Blocked EU-wide

Before you @ TCMV

This is counterfactual, not a body counthonesty first

Same numbers as "lives saved by FSD" — flipped to "deaths from regulatory delay." Nobody is claiming TCMV literally killed these specific people. It's a sensitivity model: if FSD works as claimed, how many deaths happened while approval stayed fragmented?

Patchwork saves lives — blocked EU-wide is net of thataccounting

The 5-country rollout (NL, LT, EE, DK, BE) already saves lives — that's credited, not counted as delay. "Blocked EU-wide" subtracts those savings from the gross EU-Tesla figure. Same underlying math, two framings.

TCMV isn't sitting on thousands of bodiesfleet size

The entire EU Tesla fleet is ≈ 0.5% of cars on the road. Even instant EU-wide Tesla approval moves the needle only slightly — dozens per year, not thousands. The gap between patchwork and EU-wide is real but modest.

"Whole fleet" is the 32,000-lives constructionupper bound

Tesla's slide to Swedish regulators claimed 32,000 lives by assuming every vehicle becomes a safe FSD car. Researchers called it misleading. The whole-fleet scenario is the same shape — useful as an upper bound, useless as an indictment of TCMV.

4.1× is about collisions, not deathsseverity

Most collisions kill no one. Assuming deaths fall as much as collisions is unproven; fatal crashes turn on speed and road type. The factor applies most cleanly to minor collisions, less to serious injuries, least to deaths.

Highways vs where deaths actually happenroad type

Motorways account for only about 8% of EU road deaths; rural roads account for 53%. Tesla's road-class evidence reports 40–69% fewer major crashes, so using the all-collision 4.1× factor for fatalities may overstate the toll.

The safety data is Tesla's ownsource

Reuters flagged Tesla's earlier figures as potentially inflated; US senators asked NHTSA to review the method. RDW did its own testing, but the 4.1× is Tesla's telemetry, not an independent verdict on lives saved or lost.